I like seeing probability weights on different outcomes on Metaculus and recently been following the 2024 US Presidential Election Winner question.

I’m not sure how accurate it is, but it’s fun to watch.

Unlike the other prediction markets – polymarket, kalshi, etc – this one seems more grounded and the comment section feels like a bunch of datasceinstists debating about how each incident affects the market without the chaos from either party – at least relatively.

Others remind me of betting on sports or gamified gambling on politics without substance.

Try it out and read the comments!